a hung parliament

Malaysia just had its 15th general elections and for tue first time in its 65 year history as an independent country, no party (or pre election coalition) garnered the majority seats. Its a hung parliament. 

The King's office has issued a decree to have the parties form a majority coalition and to present it to him by 2pm tomorrow. I do find it surprising that he is not asking for the party with the most seats to attempt that first. Indeed, I alerted the PH leader's office that get the constitutional lawyers to check if what the King has asked for is in keeping with our laws. Shouldn't he first allow the ticket with the most seats the chance to form the government first before asking the next party to do so. Because it can end up with the “losing” parties combining to form the government which ultimately perverts the will of the people. 



Within our office, there has been some exchanges of views and here is mine:

That no party/pre-election coalition would get majority has been widely predicted. Even the fundamentalist Islamic party getting more seats is not surprising reflecting the trends towards conservatism (even extremism) the world over. 

That these are not surprising developments however doesn’t mean these are good developments. And how good or bad it is depends on what the two leading coalitions (PH, led by my friend Anwar Ibrahim; or PN, led by Muhyiddin who won power through the back door by betraying Anwar) can cobble up. 

Anwar’s coalition includes the Chinese-dominated DAP who has proven to be difficult bedfellows esp with the Malay parties. So he has his work cut out. That said he has the largest number of seats.

A partnership with BN, the erstwhile ruling party, would easily get both sides over the line. However that partnership would certainly entail pardoning Zahid (who has 42 outstanding corruption charges) and possibly also Najib (who has been found guilty). 

On to our business: I think the Public Sector business will need to be rebuilt (yet again). The ministers who are key buyers of our work to date (MOF, MITI) both lost their seats as did MOH Minister who had bought us in the past. They are the larger consulting users so in any scenario with any coalition these three buyers won’t be in play. 

If Anwar becomes PM, we will have a good chance as over the past years, I have seen him umpteen times to talk about the country’s socio economic agenda and he is a big fan of SEDA and has mentioned it several times in parliament (and I even played the clip of him doing so at a global plenary back in 2019). So we are in play for a KSA level whole of country transformation should he win. 

On the SWF side, we don’t have a large book of business today and so if anything the impact could even be positive as the current crop of CEOs have proven to be small buyers. 

On the GLC side, the relationships we have at P, M, T, S etc should continue regardless of who is in power as we have served them through various regime change in the past 5 years. 

On the private sector side, my tycoon friends are optimistic. They welcome a legitimately elected government (rather than a back door one) and with the anti-hopping law in place, they are hopeful that a semblance of stability will return and the environment for doing business will improve.

In any case, the best people to advise how to create a positive enabling environment for socioeconomic development is us and we will be ready to do this bringing the best of firm to bear.

My two sen 😀 worth

a modern silk route 8

I am on this leg of the journey on my own. D flew back home yesterday and I have a couple more days of business meetings in Riyadh.

The mode of travel may be different from a century ago but the geography remains. It is still a desert, albeit one blessed with many natural resources, especially here in Saudi Arabia.

Some have called the natural resources a curse rather than a blessing because it enfeebled rather than enabled the most important resources of all in any country: its people. 

When God, through Moses, led the people to the Promised Land, its interesting that he put them through 40 years of hardship and then led them into a land that actually have limited resources. Instead, the people had to rely on their own ingenuity to overcome the environmental drawbacks. It is no wonder that after millenia of such reprogramming, Jews went on to master many aspects of knowledge: Einstein, Spielberg, Streisand etc. 

In three of my meetings here today, I was accompanied by a talented young principal, A and in running between meetings we walked past a prayer room. He commented in passing that, when all else fails (with respect to the high ambitions we have shaped with the clients), they can always go to that. I replied that I too believe in God but I also think God wants us to apply ourselves. God gives a destination and a road map but we have to undertake the journey ourselves. This "God willing" mentality is incredibly hope and life sustaining when faced with incredible odds where divine intervention is required but it cannot be the go-to for every situation.

God gave us a destination (heaven), a navigation guide (bible) and also free will as traveller in this life on Earth.

There was this line in the movie Lawrence of Arabia where one of the men in his troop had fallen off his camel on their way from Wadi Sarfa to Aqaba. They travelled via land through the Nefud desert (considered impassable even by the Bedouins) to Wadi Rum where he raised a larger army to surprise the Turks who were attacking them and expecting them from the sea. Lawrence acted without orders and this strategy was therefore not recorded in the British Empire's playbook and came back to haunt them in their defence of Malaya and Singapore a few decades later when their guns were also all pointed out at sea.

Lawrence and his men have to make the crossing in 20 days or else the camels who will not drink will die of thirst and so will the men. So, there was no time to lose and Lawrence's counterpart did not want to turn around to get the man who fell. Lawrence did so while the troop was resting for the day and brought the man safely back. He then said this, "it is not written".

It is very much with this philosophy in mind that I share my advice with the public sector officials here esp pertaining to human capital development where its not just about the quality of teaching but also the inculcating of desire, drive and detail. And not losing the sense of cohesion, now that's nation building at its best. 

That's what countries like Indonesia, Qatar and Saudi Arabia whom I have visited on this trip are doing. Some of them suffer from a culture of complacency and conservatism that they almost have to unlearn their recent past in order to move forward again. I am confident they can move forward they shall as Lenin once described, "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"

And some of the changes they make are "genie out of a bottle" nature where you cannot put the genie back. Society is transformed. Like this video clip of an acoustic band playing in the terrace of a hotel in Riyadh right next to a bar serving cocktails (non alcoholic, of course). It wasn't so long ago when one couldn't get a tourist visa into this country, where women can't drive, and where music cannot be played.

Very few countries in history have achieved this. Singapore is one shining example. In 50 years, it went from one of the poorest countries (in nominal GDP / capita terms) to richest in the world. It is no wonder that ambitious leaders in the middle east look to this little island state in the far east for inspiration and exemplars. And I guess having a leader who will readily take anyone to task is one way, albeit frightening, to ensure results are attained. That is certainly the case in this country and coincidentally it reminded me of an LKY quote, “Between being loved and being feared, I have always believed Machiavelli was right. If nobody is afraid of me, I’m meaningless.”

There is however a time and place for everything, as the good book of Ecclesiastes remind us. In today's society, fear may not necessarily breed obedience and love may not necessarily equate to weakness. The right leaders knows that style is situational,and in fact should be changed constantly. Only the outcome, that of uplifting the potential and spirit of the people is immutable. That both my children, and N as well, are working for the state or state-linked companies really make me proud. Their jobs matter. Hopefully, they will keep Singapore strong and safe and connected as one of the most important capitals of the world on this modern silk route.