Inflection point

As a young executive, I was fond of interpreting all signals of change (however small) as inflection points. A dip becomes a harbinger of depression. An uptick a sign of positive expansion. I do think it's the right of a young person to be optimistic (even if overly so) as well as pessimistic. Such hyperbolic feelings are fuel to the youths who then set out to do impossible things and a few with wildly spectacular results. 

All of us, more aged ones, know that of course not every downturn becomes a nightmare nor vice versa. So, as we get older, we get wiser. We learn to read the signals in a more nuanced way. 

So 3 weeks into this new year, what is there to read of the 2016 signals? Bad news always make better news so of course these dominate the media. That 2016 headlines are most bad is no surprise. But even by these sensational standards, the news these last three weeks are a shade darker.

1. First the deaths of several iconic, ground breaking music personalities notably David Bowie and Glen Frey who to me defined glam rock and country rock. Without them, my love of music would be different, even dimmed. But then, one may think of music as a trivial thing and therefore their deaths are of little significance. I beg to differ. I believe music is more than sound, it's the soundtrack of our lives. We all have (most certainly me) made gifts of them and used music to enhance our communication and even our appreciation of certain events. So their deaths are mourned. Thankfully their music remains and they have inspired others to keep producing more good music. 

2. No one will argue that peace is an ultimate state. Bombings in Istanbul and more frighteningly, Jakarta, clearly remind us not to take this for granted. Huntington in a seminal essay before the turn of the millennium pointed to a clash of civilizations. Since then, from Al-Qaeda to ISIS, terrorists who exploit the religion of Islam, are making sure they are heard, seen and taken seriously. Have we found a solution? Not at all, much less a sustainable pathway to peace.

3. Peace and prosperity are fine bedfellows. But even in places where peace is still pervasive, like China, prosperity has fallen. Growth rates have slowed, demand has dipped, prices have fallen. The economies I live and work in have not been spared and the outlook is for continued malaise. 

Perhaps, this is an inflection point even for a 'matured' observer of the world like me. And if this was 20 years ago, a young me would pronounce without a shred of hesitation that gloom even doom will surely follow. 

An older me reads the same data, recognises the more pervasive state of bad news, therefore sees an inflection point. But not towards the negative. Rather, I see an opportunity to shape the trajectory. For the better.

After all, 2015 though more challenging for me professionally than in recent years, have been mostly a big rewarding year. M got elected into leadership position in school, won the trophy in a soft ball tournament, confirmed her faith. J completed his As, found a friend, got ready for national service. D completed the house, served the church, got gifted an old beloved car. And we all went on a nice long vacation together: a road trip in the US thankfully with none of the hysteria that The Griswolds so infamously had on screen.

The best way, I have learned, to predict the future is to create it.