Rise and fall

I am a fan of Kuik Yishen’s posts (on FB). His grasp of history and his pattern identifying (and if somewhat conservative) interpretations resonate with me. From calling out the tropical botanical gardens as the then silicon valleys of their time: for colonial masters to undertake agricultural R & D and hence take advantage of large land masses they have “acquired” globally to produce the highest value cash crops... to the decisions taken by the British (in particular Raffles) to prioritise Singapore 200 years ago over all its other colonies, his version of history traces success to their sources.

His focus on Asia and especially Southeast Asia meant he cannot but write of Malacca, whom he characterised as part of the quadruplets of colonies which included Macau, Penang and Singapore. Malacca was in fact the big sibling. It was a thriving port along the most important sea lane that connected India and China. The straits is still called after it. So much so that the Chinese Emperor sent Admiral Zheng He to form diplomatic, economic and security ties back in the 13th century. So much so that it is the first state an ambitious new global naval power, the Portuguese, set to conquer. When the Malacca Sultanate fell, in 1511, this empire had lasted just about 250 years.

Credit: vinterior.co

So, recently when Kuik wrote a piece not about the origins of success but of its duration (none lasting over 250 years), I thought I’d capture it here on my blog too. He went on to ask, therefore, what of Singapore who has just celebrated its bicentennial.

A few years ago I visited Westminister Abbey. Here was Raffles, there was Blake and the poets, and there was Newton and the scientists, monarchs, aristocrats, statesmen, on and on.

I realized then Westminister Abbey was the most exclusive club in the world. A distinguished life of service to England was required for burial there. It was an institution to motivate the building of Empire.

Lim Siong Guan, Head of Civil Service (1999-2005), often quotes from Sir John Bagot Glubb, a soldier-philosopher. Glubb looked at great nations and identified 7 ages as they rose and fell, describing the changing values and heros of each age.

Practical men begin the cycle, borrowing and adapting ideas in free experimentation. Then professionalization ushers an age of expansion, where great men are builders and conquerors who bring glory to the nation. Expansion leads to an enriched nation, which celebrates its artists and intellectuals. Society sheds conservative habits and becomes eager consumers, leading to a worship of the wealthy. Finally, as consumerism gets decadent, the frivolous are worshiped - athletes, entertainers and chefs.

Singaporeans may find it hard to believe that the richest Roman of all time, Marcus Crassus, would choose to lead an army against Syria aged 61 in 53 BC. Despite his great wealth, the pinnacle of Roman achievement was to be granted a victory parade. Crassus died in Syria, molten gold poured into his head as reward for his greed. Then again, Osama bin Laden was from a rich construction family and the Ibrahim brothers who bombed Colombo, a rich spice family.

In Glubb's essay, greatness does not exceed 250 years. Writing in 1950s, he was worried about Great Britain, and proved prophetic when the IMF bailed out the UK twenty years later in 1976.

Thoughts for our Bicentennial
Tan Kah Kee's life did not overlap with my generation, so the power of stories from his time have but a feeble impact on us. The world of Crazy Rich Asians - of Eu Villa, Karikal Mahal, Har Par Villa, of Singapore in the 1930s have receded into the mists of time for Singaporeans below the age of 70, more legend than reality, and fodder for fiction.

For Singaporeans yet to take their PSLEs, LKY is only slightly less distant than Sang Nila Utama. The transmission of values from LKY's generation in the PAP and society is intact today but 30 years hence those in Primary School will be in control of Singapore.

Will we still have a honest Civil Service? Will we still have an unambiguously fair National Service? Will we still trust our Courts and the Police? Will we have a sense of national unity? Will we still have meritocracy? None of these questions should be take for granted. The power of remembered stories, lived by individuals famous or otherwise is an underestimated force in shaping the character and strength of a society and nation.

The living memory of grit, struggle and the values of LKY's generation has served as a cloak of protection around the PAP and Singapore. Kempeitai brutality, Konfrontasi, British incompetence, race riots - these were gifts of history, lending invisible strength to our commitment towards multi-racial self-determination. This cloak is coming off and it will be the challenge of Singapore to see if it will retain its greatness past Glubb's time limit. The old adage of shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in 3 generations might also apply to societies - tripling the human lifespan of 75 years gets close to Glubb's limit.